Donald Trump is a risk.
Without naming the president, Waipā District Council’s Business Resilience and Risk advisor Genny Wilson says the US government’s introduction of tariffs and any later retaliatory action by the rest of the world has catapulted it into the council’s risk register.
The geopolitical and geoeconomic environment is uncertain, Wilson told the Audit and Risk Committee in her report this week. She also warned the council’s debt levels were trending upwards.
“The economic impacts may drive inflation and impact supply chains.”
Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine could also have political and economic impacts on Waipā.
“This increase in uncertainty could financially impact council’s activities and projects, with higher material costs and potential supply delays directly impacting delivery and ability to fund the planned works. It may also result in further financial constraints being required and/or reduction in levels of service.”
The drivers were outside council’s control, but risk staff were keeping a watching brief, she said.
Also entering the register are the council’s gas supply arrangements.
The council gets its gas, a key source of energy for the Te Awamutu and Cambridge swimming pools, through a short-term All of Government contract. But there is no guarantee that supply will continue past September. It is estimated the contract will now cost $539,000, up on the earlier $315,000.
“If the contract isn’t renewed, then council will likely be on an individual contract which is spot priced, therefore rates will be higher again, provided we can obtain a spot vendor.”
Wilson said the council was looking into replacing the gas boilers with hot water pumps at the pools but that would have to go into the 2027 Long Term Plan.
Council’s other risks have been watched for some time but highlighted this quarter was the council’s current operating expenditure which is tracking higher at 63 per cent of forecast results. Operating income tracking at 56 per cent was in line with expectations.
Development Contribution levies after the financial year’s first seven months ending January 31 were also below expectation meaning the council had an accounting deficit for the period.
“Close monitoring of the financial results and trends will continue for the remainder of this financial year,” Wilson’s report said.
A reforecast is expected to be available this month.
The New Zealand Local Government Funding Agency’s debt covenant for Waipā is set at $390 million and earlier forecasting had the council reaching $376 million by June 30 but on current trends, that would be higher.
“Monitoring will continue to be critical,” the report said.
There are some positives with an increase in building consent numbers compared to last year while the development levies shortfall was due to timing.
“The construction season is still not yet completed for the year, therefore a lot of developments have not yet come through for sign off which triggers the payment. The development agreements have been reviewed and upcoming payments to ensure they will be received in this financial year to factor them into the expected revenue fairly.”